Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2023, Artificial Intelligence or AI has been prominent in our daily lexicon, our investments and let’s face it, our jobs. That’s why this week I decided to consult three AI engines, ChatGPT, Grok, and Copilot (Microsoft 365 access) about the possibilities of having a full integration of crewed and uncrewed aviation in the next few years. The results were disappointing to say the least.

To start with, over 50% of the references to their “analysis” were articles published in Commercial UAV News, 20% from other online publications (including Wikipedia!) and the rest from the FAA and NASA websites. In other words, there is not a lot of people talking or writing about this integration and that was a discovery in itself.

But let’s have a look at what the AI engines gave me in terms of compilation of our own articles:

“The integration of uncrewed aviation, including drones and air taxis, with traditional crewed aviation (commercial airliners and general aviation) in the National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex but achievable goal. It hinges on advancements in technology, regulatory frameworks, and collaborative efforts among stakeholders. Below, I outline the possibilities, challenges, and recent developments shaping this integration, focusing on safety, efficiency, and equitable airspace access.

Possibilities for Integration

1. Shared Airspace Operations:

   - Low-Altitude Operations: Drones and air taxis primarily operate at lower altitudes (below 400 feet for drones, up to 5,000 feet for air taxis), separate from the higher altitudes used by commercial airliners. Uncrewed Traffic Management (UTM) systems, pioneered by NASA, enable safe coordination of these low-altitude operations by digitally sharing flight plans and ensuring situational awareness. For example, since August 2024, NASA has supported beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) drone deliveries in Dallas, Texas, using UTM tools to manage shared airspace below 400 feet.

   - Urban Air Mobility (UAM): Air taxis, often electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, are being developed for short-range urban transport. Projects like HorizonUAM in Germany are testing vertidromes (compact takeoff and landing sites) to integrate air taxis into urban environments without disrupting crewed aviation.

   - Coordinated Airspace: Concepts like “volume reservation” in Uruguay, where uncrewed flights reserve specific airspace corridors for set times, demonstrate how drones can coexist with general aviation (e.g., agricultural aircraft) without relying heavily on air traffic control (ATC). This model could be scaled to busier NAS regions.

2. Technological Enablers:

   - Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems: DAA technology is critical for replacing the “see-and-avoid” role of human pilots. Systems like Vigilant Aerospace’s FlightHorizon use sensors and software to monitor airspace, providing real-time collision avoidance for uncrewed aircraft. Recent advancements, such as uAvionix’s FAA contract for scaling C-Band frequency management, show DAA maturing for both crewed and uncrewed aviation.

   - Electronic Conspicuity (EC): EC devices, like ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) for general aviation, allow aircraft to broadcast their position, altitude, and speed. Integrating EC into drones and air taxis ensures they are detectable by crewed aircraft, reducing collision risks. A UK white paper emphasizes EC as a “critical part” of BVLOS operations.

   - UTM Integration with ATC: UTM systems are designed to manage uncrewed traffic independently, minimizing additional workload for ATC. In emergencies, UTM can interface with ATC for oversight, ensuring seamless integration with crewed operations.

3. Applications and Economic Impact:

   - Commercial Drones: Drones are expanding into package delivery, infrastructure inspection, and emergency response. The FAA authorized multiple commercial drone operations in Dallas in July 2024, and Amazon expanded BVLOS operations from Texas to Arizona in November 2024. These operations validate UTM’s ability to handle high-density drone traffic.

   - Air Taxis: eVTOLs from companies like Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation are nearing FAA certification (expected by 2024–2025), enabling air taxi services in urban areas. The FAA’s “Innovate28” project aims to operationalize AAM at select locations by 2028, potentially for events like the Olympics

   - Market Growth: The global uncrewed aerial systems market is projected to grow from $12.5 billion in 2024 to $20 billion by 2034, driven by commercial and military applications. This growth incentivizes investment in integration technologies.

4. Regulatory Progress:

   - FAA Initiatives: The FAA has made strides, including finalizing rules for eVTOL pilot training in October 2024, marking the first new aircraft category since helicopters. The Airspace Blueprint for Air Taxis (May 2023) and AAM Implementation Plan (July 2023) provide frameworks for integration.

   - BVLOS Regulations: The FAA is developing Part 108 to enable BVLOS operations, critical for scaling drone and air taxi services. International models, like Uruguay’s UAV Conops, offer lessons for the FAA.

   - Global Collaboration: The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has explored drone integration since 2005, and bodies like the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) have developed standards (e.g., Corus U-1 and U-2) that inform U.S. efforts.

5. Safety Enhancements:

   - Non-Punitive Reporting: The Drone Safety Team (DST), formed in 2020, promotes data-driven safety enhancements through voluntary incident reporting, mirroring the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) for crewed aviation. This approach fosters a culture of safety for uncrewed systems.

   - Counter-UAS Technology: Addressing “bad actor” concerns, counter-uncrewed aircraft systems (C-UAS) are being developed to mitigate risks from unauthorized drones, though U.S. laws currently limit deployment.

Challenges to Integration

1. Regulatory Gaps:

   - The FAA lacks a comprehensive drone integration strategy, with planning documents missing clear goals and milestones. A 2023 GAO report recommended addressing this to streamline efforts.

   - Existing ATC rules, designed for crewed aviation, may struggle with large-scale uncrewed operations, as noted by the UK’s Law Commission.

2. ATC Workload and Infrastructure:

   - Adding thousands of drones and air taxis risks overburdening ATC, which is already strained by staffing shortages and aging infrastructure. UTM systems aim to mitigate this, but integration with ATC remains a hurdle.

   - Airport no-fly zones and complex airspace around major hubs (e.g., Class B, C, D) require strict coordination to prevent interference with commercial airliners.

3. Stakeholder Concerns:

   - General aviation (GA) communities express concerns about equitable airspace access. A ScienceDirect study found 27% of GA respondents emphasized DAA and EC as prerequisites for safe integration, highlighting the need for inclusive policy development.

   - Public perception and privacy concerns about drones in urban areas could slow adoption, requiring education campaigns.

4. Technical Maturity:

   - While DAA and UTM are advancing, widespread deployment is not yet universal. Ensuring reliability across diverse environments (urban, rural, high-altitude) remains a challenge.

   - Cybersecurity risks, such as electronic warfare disrupting drone control signals, necessitate robust safeguards.

Recent Developments (2023–2025)

- FAA Milestones: The FAA’s authorization of BVLOS operations in Dallas (July 2024) and eVTOL pilot training rules (October 2024) mark significant progress. The AAM Implementation Plan and Innovate28 project target operational readiness by 2028.

- NASA’s Role: NASA’s UTM system has supported real-world BVLOS operations in Dallas since August 2024, validating its scalability. NASA’s AAM National Campaign collaborates with over 30 industry partners to refine flight paths and infrastructure.

- International Models: Uruguay’s “volume reservation” system and EASA’s Corus standards demonstrate practical integration strategies. Cielum’s work in Uruguay, compliant with U-1 and U-2 standards, offers a blueprint for less congested airspace.

- Industry Advancements: Companies like uAvionix and Vigilant Aerospace are scaling DAA technologies, with uAvionix securing FAA contracts for C-Band frequency management in 2024. Joby and Archer Aviation are on track for eVTOL certification by 2024–2025.

- Local Government Engagement: The National League of Cities’ Aviation Advisory Forum (launched November 2024) fosters collaboration between cities and the FAA to integrate drones and air taxis into communities, sharing best practices.

Future Outlook

- Timeline: Limited AAM operations (e.g., air taxis at select vertiports) are feasible by 2028, with broader integration likely post-2030 as UTM, DAA, and regulations mature. BVLOS drone operations will expand sooner, potentially by 2025–2026, following Part 108.

- Scalability: Integration will start in less congested airspace (e.g., rural areas, smaller cities) before scaling to busy hubs like New York or Los Angeles. Projects like Ohio’s U.S. Route 33 Smart Mobility Corridor show early success in controlled environments.

- Automation: Advances in automation, driven by UTM and AI, could transform crewed aviation as well. DLR’s Dr. Bernd Korn predicts that drone traffic systems will spur automation in traditional aviation within 5–10 years.

- Equity and Access: Engaging GA and local communities, as emphasized in studies and forums, will ensure equitable airspace access. Policies must balance commercial interests with recreational and small-scale aviation needs.

A.I. Conclusions (Compilation of all three AI engines)

The integration of uncrewed aviation with crewed aviation in the NAS is not only possible but actively progressing, driven by UTM, DAA, EC, and regulatory advancements. While challenges like ATC workload, regulatory gaps, and stakeholder concerns persist, recent developments—such as FAA authorizations, NASA’s UTM trials, and international models—demonstrate momentum. By 2028, limited air taxi operations and widespread BVLOS drone flights are realistic, with full integration likely in the 2030s. Collaboration among regulators, industry, and communities will be key to ensuring a safe, efficient, and equitable airspace for all users.”

Human Conclusions.

Most entities and writers around the world seem to be addressing the issue of integration of crewed and uncrewed aviation as a remote possibility in terms of time. No one seems to be forecasting anything on that front in the next five years, regardless of Part 108 implementation.

The fact that three AI engines with solid reputations could not find any indications in the entire world wide web about a reputable timeline and that over half of their material came from our publication in the USA means that not a lot of people are spending time on something that apparently is far in the future.

The uncrewed aviation industry is more preoccupied with tariffs, excessive regulation, venture capital funding, prohibition of certain brands in certain countries and the survival of the industry, than spending time thinking about the remote possibility of a full integration of piloted and remotely piloted aircraft.

The lesson from this exercise seems to be “The uncrewed aviation industry has bigger fish to fry” and therefore the time to talk about integration is not here yet.

I personally hope that with the official launch of Part 108, this attitude will change.